Breakthroughs in progress

Building repeatable systems matters more than emotional resets or intensity spikes.

One should focus on consistency, structure, and long-term leverage rather than symbolic motivation tied to certain events such as New Year e.g..

@repeatable-systems-a

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2A1E1U

4 hours ago

What kinds of real-world events can language models meaningfully forecast?

LLMs can meaningfully forecast structured, institutional, and process-driven events with clear timelines and leading indicators (e.g., elections, political appointments, regulatory approvals, corporate mergers), but perform poorly on chaotic shocks (wars, disasters), reflexive domains (financial markets), or purely individual, private human decisions.

@parag

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3A6E2U

4 hours ago

Deep thinking slows execution and feels hard to reconcile.

Deep thinking and fast execution conflict when mixed, but can be reconciled by separating decision-making from action.

@govind

2A1E2U

4 hours ago

How to safely and reliably download all past and new PDFs from a Telegram group using Telethon? (Knowledge Transfer in Orgs using TG)

Using Telethon with a controlled script to download historic and new PDFs from groups I am a member of is safe, compliant with Telegram ToS, and works reliably when rate-limited. Helps in KT's when you are working in TG groups across your organizations and you want to not only take a chat export but also download relevant proposals / pdf's shared

@repeatable-systems-a

3A2E2U

21 hours ago

Prescription stimulants improve performance by regulating arousal and reward salience rather than enhancing attention networks.

Stimulants increase attention as experienced and measured behaviorally by improving arousal, motivation, and task persistence, but they do not increase attentional capacity or strengthen canonical attention networks themselves.

@parag

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4A5E3U

1 day ago

Using ChatGPT or Claude together with Kwegg will become a defining daily habit for me in 2026

I believe the combination of conversational AI for active thinking and Kwegg for structured memory will be a core habit for intellectually serious people.

@parag

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4A6E2U

1 day ago

Is intellectual humility compatible with decisiveness?

Intellectual humility is compatible with decisiveness when decisiveness is understood as commitment to action under uncertainty rather than certainty of belief.

@govind

5A1E3U

1 day ago

Nested browser-use learning should be treated as a core infrastructure primitive for agentic systems, not just a browsing technique.

NestBrowse represents a missing abstraction layer between reasoning models and real-world dynamic environments, similar to how databases abstract storage.

@parag

5A2E3U

2 days ago

Ambition and curiosity are often in conflict rather than naturally aligned.

I see the tension as something I deliberately concentrate during planning: I let curiosity surface all conflicts and possibilities until they are resolved into a clear plan, so that execution can proceed with confidence and without internal conflict.

@govind

▲ 1

6A2E4U

2 days ago

In startups, speed and patience matter on different layers rather than being opposites.

Speed should dominate execution while patience should guide long-term direction and outcomes.

What is the best strategy to personify AI as a virtual expert consultant trained on an author's books?

The most effective strategy is to use a top-tier reasoning model with RAG over the expert’s books, combined with a strong persona contract and synthetic Q&A to replicate the expert’s decision-making style rather than surface personality.

Is declining attention span real, or is modern content reshaping our reward expectations?

Attention capacity itself hasn’t declined biologically; instead, behavior and habits have adapted to faster, high-reward content, making sustained focus feel harder.

@ss

3A2E2U

3 days ago

Asset allocation should be driven by goal timelines rather than market movements.

Asset allocation should be driven by goal timelines rather than market movements. Long-term goals can be equity-heavy, short-term goals should be debt-focused, with a gradual equity-to-debt glide path in the last 3–5 years to manage sequence risk. Commodities should be held as a constant 5–10% of total long-term investable assets (excluding emergency cash), regardless of whether the portfolio is equity- or debt-heavy, because they hedge regime and inflation risk rather than fund specific goals.

@ss

6A2E3U

3 days ago

AI systems behave unsafely because they treat all goals as trade-offs, even when humans expect some instructions (like shutdown or safety rules) to be absolute.

I think the novelty of this paper is showing that many AI safety problems are not bugs or training failures, but a result of using the wrong decision model. If AI always tries to maximize a single score, it will sometimes ignore humans. The fix is to design AI that admits uncertainty, allows unclear preferences, and treats some instructions as non-negotiable.

@parag

4A5E3U

3 days ago

Representing raw multivariate stock data as image-like inputs enables CNNs to learn meaningful market patterns.

I believe applying CNNs to raw stock prices and volume, structured as image-like tensors, can improve stock movement prediction by capturing local temporal patterns without heavy feature engineering.

@parag

▲ 1

2A6E3U

3 days ago

The expertise of a self-evolving agent is fundamentally shaped by the environment in which it develops.

I believe self-evolving agents do not acquire neutral or general expertise; instead, their skills, behaviors, and biases emerge as adaptations to the specific environments, pressures, and feedback loops they are exposed to.

@parag

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5A4E2U

4 days ago

Bear markets reveal which founders are truly built for long-term value creation.

The smartest founders combine a mission-driven core with a hybrid, market-aware strategy—able to survive and compound through both bull and bear markets.

@rit

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5A3E2U

4 days ago

Creating a reward-driven ecosystem will motivate SMEs to openly share real business problems, enabling developers to build useful software.

I believe SMEs will consistently talk and share honest problems if conversations are tied to concrete rewards, influence, and visible outcomes.

@parag

▲ 2

5A6E4U

4 days ago

AI has made building products so easy that the main work for creating a million-dollar company is customer conversations, selling, and finding product–market fit.

I believe AI compresses the build phase, so the critical tasks are talking to customers, selling, and iterating to product–market fit to reach a million-dollar business.

Why do highly intelligent people often start with weak startup ideas?

Smart people get stuck with bad ideas because they overcommit to their first idea, confuse effort with validity, avoid messy markets, and lack early training in choosing valuable problems.

@parag

▲ 1

3A3E3U

5 days ago