Smart people, bad ideas

⚠️ Conflicting Evidence Why do highly intelligent people often start with weak startup ideas?

CURRENT POSITION Smart people get stuck with bad ideas because they overcommit to their first idea, confuse effort with validity, avoid messy markets, and lack early training in choosing valuable problems.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS Choosing the right problem is a separate skill from solving problems Intelligence makes it easier to rationalize weak ideas Markets reward solving mundane but painful problems

SUPPORTING EVIDENCE Repeated startup patterns like Artix show founders abandoning first ideas after market rejection Examples such as Viaweb, Google, and Microsoft succeeding after early missteps Concrete practices that train problem selection include pain-first observation, ranking problems by frequency/severity/willingness to pay, deliberate idea killing via disconfirmation, regular customer interviews focused on workflow not solutions, and testing demand with small commitment-based probes.

OPEN QUESTIONS How early can people realistically learn to skip the 'first bad idea' phase? What concrete practices best train problem selection skills? Which of these practices most effectively accelerates problem-selection skill for first-time founders?

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