paragQuestion / Claim
Startups succeed not by hitting revenue formulas, but by deeply solving painful problems for a small, specific group.
Key Assumptions
- Revenue milestones are outcomes, not causes, of product-market fit.(high confidence)
- Small, focused user groups provide better learning than broad markets early on.(high confidence)
- Retention and word-of-mouth are stronger indicators of long-term success than acquisition numbers.(medium confidence)
Evidence & Observations
- Common YC advice emphasizes talking to users, charging early, and doing things that don’t scale before focusing on growth metrics.(citation)
- Observed pattern that startups with early passionate users survive longer than those with high but shallow traction.(personal)
Open Uncertainties
- How small is too small when choosing an initial niche?
- When is the right time to shift focus from learning to scaling?
Current Position
I believe the real driver of startup success is obsession with user pain, retention, and fast learning—not surface-level metrics like MRR alone.
This thinking has reached a conclusion.